Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
